How Climate Change and Food Insecurity Could Fuel Future Conflicts

The world’s food system is on the brink of collapse due to climate-driven agricultural decline, a phenomenon that poses dire consequences for global stability and security. The impact of climate change on agriculture has been surprisingly opaque until now, but research by Hannes Mueller and his team at the Institute for Economic Analysis has shed light on its effects.

The Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI) reveals that tropical regions are experiencing significant reductions in food production. Countries such as Cambodia, Bangladesh, Burundi, Nigeria, Paraguay, and El Salvador have seen harvests decline by nearly half over the past 30 years. This trend is not limited to developing countries; wealthy regions like Europe are also affected.

Climate-driven agricultural change can create new winners and losers within nations, sparking tensions that can escalate into conflict. For example, major producers of sparkling wine in Europe are buying up land in mountainous regions for future grape harvests, illustrating how climate change can create new economic opportunities and social dynamics.

Mueller’s research suggests that the key issue is not just scarcity but the change itself. As land becomes more productive and valuable due to climate change, it attracts investors and creates competition for ownership and access. This can lead to breakdowns in negotiations and violence, even in countries that appear to be benefiting overall.

The likelihood of conflict arising from agricultural change is higher in non-democracies. When climate shocks, food insecurity, and competition over resources hit democracies, they tend to have institutions that force competing interests to negotiate rather than fight. This highlights the importance of democratic governance in preventing conflict.

The Sahel region, spanning across North Africa, is particularly vulnerable to climate-driven agricultural decline due to its rapid population growth and limited infrastructure. South Asia, with a population of around 2 billion, is heavily dependent on imports and vulnerable to food price shocks. The combination of climate-driven agricultural decline and global trade disruptions makes this region a warning sign for what’s to come.

Abdullah Fahimi of the German Council on Foreign Relations warns that we’re not paying enough attention to the threats to our livelihoods. “These threats can trigger major crises and displace millions and millions of people.” The world needs to wake up to this reality and start working towards a more sustainable food system.

Within the next 25 years, nearly half of the world’s population could be living in areas where farms are producing less food, according to CADI research. This is not just an environmental issue; it’s a ticking time bomb that will have far-reaching consequences for global stability and security.

As we head into a future marked by climate-driven agricultural decline, we need to rethink our priorities. We can no longer afford to ignore the impact of climate change on agriculture or rely solely on technological fixes. The solution lies in building more resilient food systems that prioritize local production, reduce reliance on imports, and support democratic governance.

The clock is ticking. Will we act before it’s too late?